India’s Crude Oil Trends What June 2025 Data Means for the Stock Market

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22 Jul, 2025

India’s Crude Oil Trends What June 2025 Data Means for the Stock Market

Key Insights from June 2025 Crude Oil Data

The Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) has released new data for June 2025 which provides crucial insights into India's energy consumption and import dynamics:

Crude Oil Consumption: Degrowth of 0.5% year-on-year in June 2025.
Crude Oil Imports:
- Increased by 5% in June 2025 compared to June 2024.
- However, for the period April–June 2025, there’s a marginal decline of 0.3% year-on-year.

Petroleum Product Imports:
- June 2025 saw an increase of 18.4%.
- For the broader April–June 2025 period, the growth stands at 2.9%.

What Does This Mean?

The above numbers highlight a complex picture:

Slight Decline in Consumption: The 0.5% degrowth in crude oil usage indicates either a temporary slowdown in industrial or transportation activity, possibly tied to muted domestic demand or efficiency improvements.
Spike in Product Imports: A sharp rise in petroleum product imports hints that refineries may be importing more finished products (like diesel, petrol) instead of processing crude oil domestically. This could be due to price arbitrage or refinery maintenance shutdowns.
Marginal Drop in Q1 FY26 Crude Imports: Despite a rise in June, the quarter shows flat trends, pointing to possible inventory optimization or cautious buying due to global price volatility.

Impact on Indian Stock Market

1. Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) like IOCL, BPCL, HPCL

Margins may come under pressure if international prices rise and domestic consumption weakens.
Increased import of petroleum products may impact refining spreads negatively.

2. Paint, Chemical & FMCG Companies

If oil prices stabilize or fall due to lower demand, these sectors may benefit from reduced input costs (as crude derivatives are key raw materials).

3. Refinery Stocks

Could face short-term underperformance if product imports increase and domestic processing demand drops.
Watch for GRM (Gross Refining Margin) commentary in quarterly results.

4. Transportation & Logistics

A decrease in fuel demand may point to a slowdown in logistics activity, but if prices soften, it could improve margins in the medium term.

Investor Takeaway

This data reflects an early signal of changing consumption dynamics and global interlinkages. Investors should:

Track crude oil price movement globally.
Monitor GRM trends for OMCs.

Watch consumer demand revival signals in auto, logistics, and manufacturing sectors.

By Saurabh Jain

This content is for educational and knowledge purposes only and should not be considered as investment or Trading advice. Please consult a certified financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.

Our Recent FAQS

Frequently Asked Question &
Answers Here

Q1. Why has crude oil demand fallen in India?

Crude oil demand has fallen by 0.5% YoY in June 2025 possibly due to muted industrial activity, seasonal variations, or improved energy efficiency.

Q2. Is a 5% increase in crude imports positive?

Yes and no. It shows healthy supply buildup, but if not backed by domestic demand, it might result in inventory build-up or indicate external price-driven behavior.

Q3. Why did petroleum product imports rise by 18.4%?

This could be due to: • Domestic refinery shutdowns • Price arbitrage opportunities • Seasonal consumption spikes (e.g., monsoon diesel demand)

Q4. Will this affect fuel prices in India?

Yes, especially if global oil prices are volatile. Higher product imports could result in retail fuel price adjustments depending on government pricing policy and forex trends.

Q5. Which stocks or sectors could be impacted?

• Negatively: OMCs, Refiners • Positively: Paints, Chemicals, FMCG (due to lower oil price pass-through